I am working with Tableau Pulse metrics and trying to understand how the Expected Range and Forecast Confidence Range are calculated behind the scenes. In my Pulse metric trend chart.
As shown in the attached screenshot, on May 10, 2026, the metric value is 1.19M and Tableau Pulse mentions that it is within the expected range of 1.08M to 1.49M considering seasonal patterns. Similarly, the forecast for May 2026 is displayed along with a forecast confidence range. In this example, I have applied a Month-to-Date (MTD) filter as well
When I hover over the information icon, it says:
“The range that the metric value is expected to fall in, calculated based on the 200 data points…”
I would like to understand technically:
· How exactly is the Expected Range calculated in Tableau Pulse?
· What statistical or forecasting model is being used behind the scenes?
· Can this same logic be replicated in Tableau Desktop using calculated fields or forecasting features?
I have attached a screenshot for reference. Any documentation or technical explanation would be very helpful.
Thanks in advance!
#Tableau Pulse
Hi, unfortunatelly Tableau has not made public documents or web pages about this:
- Exact formulas
- Confidence level percentages
- Whether Pulse uses additive vs multiplicative seasonality
- Whether ML-based anomaly detection is layered on top
Any answer on this would be a guess. My recommendation is you to create a support case:
https://help.salesforce.com/s/casesIf you get an answer from support, please post it here, that way we can improve the knowledge about this topic
If this post resolves the question, would you be so kind to "Accept this Answer"?. This will help other users find the same answer/resolution and help community keep track of answered questions. Thank you.
Regards,
Diego Martinez
Tableau Visionary and Tableau Ambassador
